Russia-Ukraine War

[burger1]

Another refinery hit. Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery was hit again today. Some depots where hit earlier. Belarus, China and probably some other countries helping Russia with fuel. One refinery might have been flooded when the dam in russia went a while ago.

China refuses to stop supporting Russia after US Blinkden's visit.

US gives a separate 6 billion dollar aid package to Ukraine including longer range atacms. Russia's apparently stepped up strikes on railway stations in an attempt to disrupt/destroy aid. Ukraine pulling back some of their tanks due to increased russian drone attacks.

Countries donating Patriot systems to Ukraine after some debate. Also some SAM units.

[mr.WHO]

Tell me people, am I the only one who get mad about those clickbait news about Ukraine withdrawing Abrams from the frontlines because they "took serious losses"?

I mean WHAT THE HELL?
It's literally the biggest, full scale conventional war on the planet, with two near-peer sides having a full spectrum of modern weaponry and you call loss of 5 tanks in a few months A HEAVY LOSSES?!
There is in total, already like 4000+ confirmed tank losses for entire war, 5 units is a blip.

Hell, if they would lost 15 or all 30 Abrams, this would still be very good performance statistic.

[burger1]

5/37 Abrams destroyed/captured/etc...? Most lost a while ago. Tanks might not be as useful on defence vs offence? Tanks pulled back a while ago?

If russia advances they are probably salvaging both Russian and Ukrainian tanks, etc.... from battlefields. Same as when Ukraine was advancing and gaining tanks.

Russian equipment and manpower losses are still multiples of what Ukraine loses are.

[Alan Phipps]

Given the strange mix of different equipment types and of different origins in use by Ukraine, I think they would be more worried about the loss of specially trained operators than of some of the equipments.

[V2200]

Soon in Moscow. Have time to visit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epPPB2Sl-Mo

Or Patriot Park right now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clOaelaj3FA

[Alan Phipps]

Both sides have tended to show off their equipment captures at one time or another. I suspect this is more for internal reasons rather than others.

[notaterran]

60 billion dollars. Not the biggest expenditure but still a nice truckload of money. How long can Ukraine last with that money? Until 2025 or 2026? What happens when Russia burns through its Soviet stockpiles?

[Chips]

60 billion dollars. Not the biggest expenditure but still a nice truckload of money. How long can Ukraine last with that money? Until 2025 or 2026? What happens when Russia burns through its Soviet stockpiles?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 024-03-21/

CNN reported, opens new tab earlier this month that Russia is producing nearly three times as many artillery munitions as the United States and Europe combined, citing unidentified Western intelligence sources.

When it first started, it was true that they'd run out. But its dragged on... and they've had time

[mr.WHO]

What happens when Russia burns through its Soviet stockpiles?

Simple - either Russia will lose the war, or start to burn through China stockpile.
They already burned through North Korea and Iran stokpile quite well.

[burger1]

Looks like Russia might be able to some extent jam the Excalibur guided shells or something. The artillery shell initiative which gets regular artillery shells might be more important now. Hopefully it's not a trick/trap.

Russia losses have increased so looks like they are making a push before supplies get to the front lines and taking advantage of other circumstances.

Ukraine got more donations of missiles, artillery shells, fighting vehicles and more from various countries over the last 24 hours.

Just an fyi some of the tanks got stuck and where abandoned then hit by Ukraine's drones/artillery to destroy them. An Abrams might have been one of them?

[mr.WHO]

Interesting news:

Kazahstan put 117 soviet era warplanes on sale since October 2023.
Somehow, through intermediaries, US bought 81 planes.

I wonder what for

[fiksal]

Time to have a check point on Russia

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/ ... rts-a84773

Russian Activist Who Helped Ukrainian Refugees Dies in Custody – Reports
A Russian activist and volunteer who had helped Ukrainian refugees return home during the invasion has died in police custody in the southwestern Russian city of Belgorod, the Vot Tak news outlet reported Monday, citing two anonymous sources in his inner circle.

Alexander Demidenko, 61, was reportedly abducted and tortured in October 2023. After serving 10 days in jail on misdemeanor charges of public alcohol consumption, he was placed in pre-trial detention for alleged illegal weapons possession.

According to Vot Tak, Demidenko died inside a Belgorod detention center on Friday.

Demidenko’s home had become a stopping point for hundreds of Ukrainians crossing back into Kyiv-controlled territory nearly every day from Russia, where they were either forcibly deported or evacuated from what is now occupied territory.

They do so via the Kolotilovka border checkpoint, followed by a two-kilometer journey on foot to Ukrainian-controlled territory. Around 100 people are believed to cross every day.

Demidenko had helped Ukrainians reach the Kolotilovka checkpoint. According to his son, Demidenko was abducted at Kolotilovka after reporting to Pepel about an alleged scheme to solicit bribes from Ukrainians.

A fascist regime has only one punishment for brave men.


But that is normal:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/ ... nce-a84717

Russia Is Descending into the Dark Ages Through Normalizing Violence

The videos of masked men shooting at members of the audience in the Crocus City Hall concert venue were unbearable to watch. But they were soon followed by other shocking images. Footage published on social media associated with the Russian security services showed one of the suspects being beaten with rifle butts, and his ear being cut off.

Other images later emerged — a photo of another suspect in a school gym, where he is lying on the floor with wires connected to his genitals. In photos and videos from the court, evidence that the detainees were tortured was on full display.

In a strange symmetry, ISIS-K has also published its own videos taken by the terrorists in the concert hall. Terror groups often produce and spread videos of their atrocities to showcase their might, recruit supporters, and instill fear in their enemies. Violence becomes their way to express their ultimate power over the lives of civilians who are suddenly defenseless in the face of brutal and inhuman force that aims to destroy them.

When agents of the Russian state publish such images, they essentially do the same. Even though their violence is directed at suspected terrorists, its proud demonstration shows everyone that the state has complete power over human life through law enforcement. Human beings are reduced to their physical bodies that can be destroyed, tortured, and humiliated, often gleefully and theatrically. No longer conducted in secret, violence is made public, it is celebrated and enjoyed.

Torture, murder and violence never really left Russia. It was a common place, accepted, and semi-celebrated by people in post WW2 times; it was considered unavoidable and matter of jokes till 90s, and it's back to being front and center now. This is not news to anyone who lives or lived in Russia, but it might be on this forum.

What's special about current times, is that it has switched from being a part of life / shrug sort of emotion, to a celebration, a proud moment that we/Russians can now gleefully discuss over vodka.

There forever be a disconnect when discussing violence with many Russians, who see it as a necessary part of every government.

I bet there's more to come and this will keep evolving.

[chew-ie]

Really grim @fiksal.
Another news coverage of that tragedy @ theguardian.com: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... caught-him

On that occasion I have to point out that we are living in a time where "dying in police custody" is not a normal thing. At least not for europeans. (as in EU citizens)

[fiksal]

Really grim @fiksal.
Another news coverage of that tragedy @ theguardian.com: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... caught-him

On that occasion I have to point out that we are living in a time where "dying in police custody" is not a normal thing. At least not for europeans. (as in EU citizens)

yes it is grim,
but we need to repeat and discuss it, to not become accustomed to it.

[burger1]

Ryazan oil refinery hit.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-ryaz ... 00513.html

Fuel prices in Russia might be increasing. Grain prices might be increasing. Should be interesting to see if the Russian food industry production decreases. The grain gives russia power over allied African countries, etc... that depend on the grains. It's also why taking the land in Ukraine is important due to it's increased productivity vs slightly colder russian grain areas (one harvest per year vs two?).

Russian wikipedia launched a couple days ago. Might just redirect russians to their webpages? Goes along with them rewriting history books and teaching alternative history.

Russia started arresting gay people and charging them for being gay a couple weeks ago.

Looks like russia has managed to get removed some twitter pages from Ukrainian users. Some of the pages were people detailing their experiences in civilian life and the military so sort of a history log of the russian invasion.

[Warenwolf]

Gazprom plunges to first annual net loss since 2001 years caused by the reduction of trade with Europe (1).
Also long term prospects look bleak - the price they get for their oil is predicted, by Russians themselves, to be 28% lower than what they could get from trading with Europe (2).

Worth noting is that Gazprom's oil exports were keystone to building Kremlin's war chest since 2014.



Source:
1:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 024-05-02/
2:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... eddit_wall

[notaterran]

ATACMS are making some noise, even though it seems that those are the old ones. As long as Russia has trouble intercepting them I guess it doesn't matter. Hopefully Ukraine will get thousands of them.

[mr.WHO]

Hopefully Ukraine will get thousands of them.

According to wiki, since 1986 US build 3'700 of these.

Given the training and military usage, I don't think there even are thousands of those, to give away nor to produce anytime soon.

[notaterran]

So these Ukrainian attacks are not going to last long And GLSDB didn't work out. What options do the Ukrainians have?

[burger1]

There's still a lot of stuff. Storm Shadow missiles and their variants. Germany can produce a lot more of them but won't. A variety of land and air launched missiles. Might be a 75% near miss rate currently due to jamming/spoofing?

Ukraine needs larger long range weapons to blow stuff up behind enemy lines.

Not sure if glsb are not usable. Could be used as dumb munitions against static targets?

Whatever is jamming the missiles/shells needs to be dealt with. Might be the Chinese? Might be a space based weapon? There's other ways around it but NATO still needs some tricks up it's sleeve.

Hopefully the Ukrainians are digging in around Kharkiv and the populations getting off their butts and helping. If the able portion of the 1.7m people in the region help they should be able to get stuff done.

Russia's unlikely to collapse. China might prop it up by themselves if necessary. China is the game changer not russia.

Dam buster or bunker buster vs kerch bridge? The bridge is already rigged to explode by russia wonder if their bombs can detonated? Seismic bombs cause earthquakes in Turkey (?) might not be popular.